Monday, May 4, 2015

Rough Draft

I pressed my thumb into the scanner as I do every morning at 8 A.M. sharp. A hologram of a middle aged woman appears on the screen above me and says “Good morning Marie, please verify the completion of your assignment” This is routine for me, our actual school institutions had been abolished many years ago and now each student attended class virtually from the security of their homes. It was much more organized this way, and allowed for the Fellowship to track the progress of each person much more effectively.  Tracking and order is the main objective of the Fellowship ever since the Great War collapsed half the world orders.  Order and obedience were two things that were drilled into each of their heads every day from a very young age. Each teacher emphasized how the western portion of the world became the way it is, and why the wall was built to divide both sides. I’m very fortunate to live in Easteros, no one from here is ever allowed to cross what was once known as the Pacific and Atlantic ocean, not that we would ever want to. Once the Fellowship saw there was no winning the war, and how much destruction had come from it, a French scientist that we know only as “Le Maitre” developed out an the greatest electromagnetic wall that divided the world entirely in half. It allowed for us to have the peace and order that we currently have now.
They say the other side of the world, or what we now call Omenos, is still a war zone, with multiple Jihadist groups fighting each other to fill the power vacuum that each predecessor leaves in its wake. You see, you may ask how this happened but it happened so quickly and yet so openly that it is a surprise that no one was able to prevent it. They say our old government officials didn’t take ISIS seriously enough, constantly believing that they would burn themselves out. Even when ISIS began making alliances with other terrorist groups such as Boko Haram in Africa, no finger was moved against them. The Jihadist movement that began in the Middle East soon then spread into the vast majority of Asia and Europe. ISIS member’s local attacks grew in scale, eventually leading into mass terrorist activities that soon infiltrated the European Union and lead to attacks across the continent from within. They were able to recruit so easily from all over the world through provocative videos and social blogs that their numbers had grown larger than anyone had imagined until it was too late. By 2076, ISIS had managed to form more alliances, strengthening ties with Iran Russia, and China that allowed them access to weapons of mass destruction. They used those weapons to spread terror and fear as far across as they could reach. They began with Israel, moving military forces in from each side. Israel’s only safe guard was the Egyptian border but that was soon taken over by Boko Haram. Israel’s allied forces attempted to intervene but the 2083 nuclear bombing of London, England soon stopped all attempts. The United States withdrew its troops as the death toll climbed up to nearly 1,250,000. The decision was then made on December 13th, 2085, nearly 10 years since the war had started, France, England, Japan alongside with a few other countries decided to move the vast majority of their citizens into the safety that the Eastern side of the world provided. The vastness of nuclear bombings had left their crops dead, their water contaminated and a spread of illnesses amongst them that they felt there was no other choice. That’s when the Fellowship was created,  composed of each individual country in North and South America.
 Those were horrible times but thankfully they were over many years ago, 54 years ago to be exact. I turn my focus back to the holographic screen as each student’s name popped up on the side as they logged in.  The screen turned bright red as The Fellowships flag covered its entirety, it’s flowing orange flames symbolizing the unity and resiliency of each country it was composed of, the strong melody playing in the background slowly faded away as another woman appeared. “Children of Easteros, please rise for your pledge of devotion” she said in a commanding monotone voice. As I stood, the sensors from our computer followed me, ever ensuring that I was obeying as I was told.
“ I pledge my devotion, and loyalty to the Union of the Fellowship, undeniably, unquestionably, and with all completeness. Under one and only God, and one flag, that shelters us from all that is bad. To this I solemnly swear.”
Later that afternoon, I ventured to the local park, a place that I often found peace in. It had a small fresh water spring, one that ran through our small town and provided ample drinking water to all its residents once it had been purified. It was a secluded area, the sun casting shadows through the trees as my feet crunch through the small wooded area until I find my favorite boulder to sit on. It overlooks a small waterfall and the sound of the cascading water soothes me. I hear a faint chirp in one of the tree branches above, it doesn’t take me very long to spot the Surv, a robotic drone bird meant to keep an eye on everyone. My parents say that they the Survs used to actually look like little planes just flying around but it made everyone a little uneasy so the Fellowship chose to make them into birds. I’m still a bit creeped out by them, just knowing that someone at the Fellowship headquarters is able to fly that little bird around and peek into my life whenever they please. My parents constantly remind me that it is necessary, the Fellowship only wants to protect us and make sure that everything is okay.
            There’s a rustle in the bushes behind me, I turn around slowly to peer in the direction the noise came from. It’s probably just a squirrel I think, and nestle back onto my rock. The same rustle comes again but closer this time, I stand up and hop off the boulder, slowly stepping so that the boulder is between the bushes and myself. I wait to see if I hear anything but it is quiet now; must be a squirrel I remind myself. I peer up at the sky, the sun is beginning to set and my parents will be home soon and wonder where I am, they highly disapprove of me going out alone but I’m 17 years old and an adult according to the Fellowship. I begin to walk back when I hear movement behind me, turning just in time to see what appears to be a woman but isn’t a woman walking rapidly towards me. I run quickly backwards, stumbling over my own feet, becoming tangled in the brush. Her face oddly disfigured, skin scaly and grey,  she lets out what I think is a shriek as she runs towards me but I can’t tell because my own shriek and something else is filling my ears and clouding my head. “Run you idiot!”  my mind is yelling out me but I am frozen,  this is how my story will end, in the woods alone by the hands of a mutant. She reaches me and begins clawing at my arms as I try frantically to fight her off, suddenly we are both covered in a luminescent blue light, I feel my self control instantly taken from me, muscles easing as the creature and I both float momently frozen in time. Then ZAP, she is gone and I fall with a soft thump onto the brush beneath me. Above me, I can barely make out the silhouette of a Fellowship hovercraft moving away from us. The shrieking noise that once filled my head stops abruptly as the Surd flies away. “Protection” I murmur to myself sarcastically. The sun is almost set down and I break out into a run, my parents will already have noticed my absence and I could already hear the telling-off I’d get soon.  I’m panting by the time I make it back to my house, stealthily climbing up a tree whose branch reaches near my bedroom window. I quietly step through my window and into my bed with precision that can only be attained through constant practice. “Coast is clear, no sign of my parents” I think as I quickly take off my sweaty clothes and change into clean clothes. I examine my arms, the fresh scratch marks still swollen and red from my recent encounter with what ever that was. I’ve never seen anything like that. “Who or what was that? “ I pondered. And what would have happened had that Surv not been there to set off the alarm? 
            My closet door squeaks as it moves a bit, instantly putting me on alert. What in the world was going on here? Thinking quickly, I grab the nearest thing to me, my trophy I won for a cyber security competition I had in 4th grade. Gripping the base firmly,  I inched closer and closer to the door, reaching for the handle, arm raised and ready to strike. I swing the door open only to find my very startled little 14-year old brother Josh crammed into the corner of my closet. “What are you doing in my room?!” I start off on him.
“Nothing! Don’t worry about it.” He responds back to me, scrambling to climb out of my closet. I notice a large rectangular object in his hand and he quickly hides it behind his back when he notices me looking. “Hey, what is that?” I ask, attempting to reach around him.
“Stop, it’s nothing!” He yells while squirming away from my reach and backing himself out of the room. I grab him and pinch his arm as hard as I can, he gives out a “yelp” and I manage to use his momentary pain to grab the object from his hands. I jump onto my bed, the object still in hand and peer hard at it. “Hey give it back!” Josh yells at me attempted to reach it out of my hands but I kick him off my bed. “What is this?” I ask again looking at it more closely. The gold inscription on the top reads “The Qur’an” and then it clicks. “How did you get this?!” I ask him frantically. Books to begin with had been destroyed when the Fellowship was formed, they were said to cause dangerous thoughts and now here in my hands was not only a book but also one of the most dangerous and forbidden books ever. We were united citizens under one religion, any other religion was strictly prohibited. The differences in beliefs had been one of the main reasons for the eruption of the Great war and now this horrible thing had found its way into my own home. “I found it!” Josh yells back, attempting to snatch it out of my hands. “Do you know HOW much trouble and danger you’ve put our family in? If they find us with this, who knows what they’ll do to us!” I don’t even want to open the book, it feels too hot in my hands, burning me with guilt. I jump off the bed and head towards the door. “Hey! Wait, where are you going?” Josh persists, following closely behind me. “I have to give this to mom and dad, this is too dangerous. They’ll know what to do with it” I state.
“You can’t do that!” He says, defiantly standing between the door and I. “If you tell them, they’ll be just as guilty as us. You can’t do that to them” He continues. My mind floods with conflicting thoughts instantly, he was right. If the Fellowship knew that we had this, what would they do to our family? What would happen to my parents and their jobs? I had heard horror stories of families who had been caught practicing other religions, no one knows exactly what happenened to them but just that they are never seen again. I couldn’t let that happen to us.
I turn back into my room and cover the book with my pillow, willing it away. “What did you do to us?” I stare blankly at him. “You don’t understand Marie, I was just walking back from Corey’s house when I noticed it just sitting there in the bush! It’s not like I went looking for it. I just grabbed it and ran back here as soon as I could.” He sounded exasperated as he plopped down onto my bedroom rug. Here was my little brother, broken and confused. “Hey, it’s okay. We’ll get rid of it and no one will ever know about this.” I  said soothingly, kneeling down so that I could wrap my arm protectively around him.
“Hey, what happened to your arms?” He asked, peering onto the red marks that still covered my arms. “You wouldn’t believe me if I told you.” I responded,


Sunday, May 3, 2015

Rough Draft

Here's the link. It is a little rough. But comments on the basics and fundamentals would be nice! Thanks

https://docs.google.com/document/d/13NLMIf5U_wQcrps-s7iyepBk9R4ux4ln6uY86YEONFg/edit?usp=sharing

Kesting Rough Draft

Hey guys,

Like Grace and Sarah I decided to use a google doc that can be edited so feel free to comment in a different color or go through and make suggestions. I have my basic idea ironed out pretty well but I could definitely use advice so feel free to suggest anything.

It is definitely very rough and missing large sections but I will continue to update and add parts.

Kesting Rough Draft

Killer Earth Rough Draft

Link to comment: https://docs.google.com/document/d/11Vg-i36RHJQxL6NtWzosoAG6Qb5dCR1zZwTRdCCz1Ec/edit?usp=sharing

Thank you and happy reading!

The Butterfly Effect

Hello! Below is a google doc link that can be edited containing my rough draft. Please feel free to fix grammatical errors or give me suggestions within the google doc as well as on the comments. I hope you guys enjoy it!
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Pg-JM3o-vnQylKh2WcFwEhDQJIQdAR13la5PFXfNetM/edit?usp=sharing

Globalization and the Future of Conflict

By: Noah Johnson
Introduction
She looks up. It is aflame. The entire factory is aflame. Twenty thousand square feet and millions of dollars of US foreign investment are gone in the blink of an eye. As she listens to the sirens close in around her, she cannot help but smile a smile of victory.
Is this the future of violence? Globalization has had an unmistakably positive impact on the amount of peace between states. Globalization, which is the spread of democratic-capitalism throughout the world, has increased the interconnectedness of every state, both social and economically. This will continue in the future; and eventually, all states will lose the incentive to go to war with each other. The wellbeing of a state’s population will become too contingent on the rest of the world, both economically and culturally. International isolation, like in current day North Korea, will be impossible by the year 2050. In the future, liberal peace will overcome ethnic and religious grievances, and states will act more rationally to protect their economic interest first and foremost.
Liberal peace was first theorized shortly after World War 2 as the reason democracies hardly ever fought one another in war (Babst 9). By the year 2050, and about 100 years after liberal peace theorized, almost every major state in the world will be a democracy and even the smaller states that are not democracies will be more democratic. In the future, liberal peace will become a selling point of both democracy and capitalism, and people in developing countries around the globe will put increasing pressure on their government’s to become more globalized. The loss of incentives for states to fight one another will create more international cooperation and communication, which will improve international relations between states future. However, this will not be the end to political violence. Rather, the prevalence of politically motivated violence will shift from state actors to non-state actors. We can already see this trend occur in the present, but by the year 2050 more terrorism and more diverse forms of terrorism will be the dominant force of world conflict, to the point that it is the only internationally relevant mode of conflict. 
The most prevalent terrorist motivation in the world currently, religious extremism (GTI 31), will still exist in the future; though, new motivations for terrorism will emerge and supplant religious extremism as the most prevalent terrorist. Namely, the frequency and ferocity of eco-terrorism will have increased exponentially by the year 2050 as environmental problems, caused by globalization, begin to cause tangible harm to people’s lives. Also, out of the fringe right wing political parties of the globalized world will emerge a resurgence of nationalist terrorism, which will reject globalization and seek to undermine international cooperation in favor of isolationism.
In the future, the structure of terrorist groups will also change as a reaction to globalization. As technology improves, mainly through advancements in surveillance and drone technology, it will no longer be feasible for terrorist groups to exist as paramilitary organization with recognized hierarchies. Instead, vast networks of interconnected independent terror cells and lone wolf terrorists will thrive in the future. Likewise, terrorist will adapt to the increased interconnectedness via the Internet by shift their focus from physical terrorism to cyber terrorism.

Religious Extremism
            Social scientists have long argued that the Muslim world reacted negatively to globalization from the West. As Middle East affairs expert Barry Rubin put it, “ Probably no area in the world resists--at least explicitly--globalization to an extent equaling that of the Islamic Middle East.” (2013) There are numerous theories for why globalization is rejected in the region, but the most succinct argument is that globalization threatens the Muslim world’s cultural identity. Capitalism, in theory, does not intend to impact culture. However, history has shown us that cultural homogeneity is a side affect of capitalist expansion. Consumer goods are cultural. But it’s not the goods themselves that are threatening to Muslim identity, but the way the western world values consumer goods. To an outsider, it would appear as if American and other Western peoples value consumer goods, employment and money over their religion or other aspects of their identity. Whether or not the western world actually has these values is irrelevant. The perception alone is enough for many Muslims, who value their religious and ethnic identities above all else, to reject globalization.
Nonetheless, the rejection of globalization in the Muslim world is failing (Rubin). The recent Arab spring showed the desire for democracy in Northern Africa and the Middle East; and the money from oil production has increased demand for luxury goods throughout the Muslim world. In response to this failure, Muslims have become even more religious as a means of protecting their identity. Islamic fundamentalism is the result of years of rejecting globalization, and then seeing it infiltrate farther into the Muslim world (Griffel). Islamic extremism is the desperate attempt to do what non-violent methods could not, stop globalization.
The relationship between globalization and increased religious fundamentalism will continue in the future. As the Muslim world becomes more globalized, religious polarity will heighten to the point that sides must be chosen. There will be less middle ground for Muslims to exist in. The globalized Muslim world will eventually encompass all of the Muslim world except for religious fundamentalists who have became so religious that they feel threatened by any one who is not also fundamentalist. As a result of polarization, extremist groups will grow in size as more Muslims adapt fundamentalist ideologies.
By the year 2050, the denominational conflict within Islam will look very different tan it does today. The overwhelming majority of Muslims- i.e. those who have chose to take part in the globalized world- will not engage in violence with other denominations of Islam as frequently. This is not to say that religious grievance will not still exist in the Muslim world, only that the grievance will be less important in the future; and therefore not important enough to create violent conflict among globalized peoples. The Islamic extremists, on the other hand, will become even more hostile to other denominations as their beliefs become increasingly radical.
I will finish this section by talking about religious terrorism by non- Muslims how the methods of countering religious extremism will change in the future.

Eco-Terrorism
            By the year 2050, no other motivation for terrorism will have grown in both frequency and damage caused as eco-terrorism. In the present, eco-terrorism has been I decline since the early 2000’s. In 2004, John Lewis, deputy assistant director of the FBI Counterterrorism Division told the Senate Judiciary Committee that “the Animal Liberation Front and the Earth Liberation Front have become the most active criminal extremist elements in the United States,” and that “eco-terrorism matters is our highest domestic terrorism investigative priority” (qtd. in Hirsh & Mudde 587). But in recent years, FBI officials have noted a reduced threat by environmental extremist groups. The FBI theorizes that the reduced threat may be due to a string of felony conviction for members of the ELF in 2007, which had upwards of 13-year sentences (Eliperin). Furthermore, detained activists frequently testified against other members of their groups, relative to other extremists, which may indicate weaker commitment to their cause than other terrorist organization. However, this latter point could soon change if environmental issues start having more tangible effects on people.
For example, if smog from urban factories creates observable increases in respiratory problems and cancer in states like China or India, than the populace of those states will put pressure on their government to reduce emissions. States, who will be looking to maintain a comparative advantage in the international market, will be reluctant restrict emissions in order to maintain economic growth.
Globalization will not necessarily create a “race to the bottom”, but it will narrow the margins from which companies can make profits, which is the result of increased competition in a competitive market. Eco-terrorism will be the response to government reluctance to handle environmental crisis. Caught between increasing violence and economic recession, states with the greatest comparative advantages in production will be more willing to meet the demands of eco-terrorists and implement environmental regulations. In contrast, states with comparative disadvantages will be less likely to create regulations and will therefore be more vulnerable to prolonged eco-terrorism. 
            As a result, the comparative advantage one state will have over other states will exist in the technological infrastructure of the country. In other words, the more technologically advanced countries will have more wiggle room for environmental regulations and will likely experience less eco-terrorism.  This means that current day developing countries, which already experience more terrorism than developed countries, will likely experience higher levels of eco-terrorism.
            Outside of developing countries, intergovernmental organizations will also become targets of eco-terrorist threats. By the year 2050, bodies like the United Nations will have much more enforcement power on non-economic issues. Improved international cooperation resulting from globalization will allow these supranational bodies to coordinate aid more effectively as well as mobilize peacekeeping forces around the globe more efficiently. However, in the future, the UN and other intergovernmental bodies will still lack the power to enforce economic regulations. The only body that will have some economic enforcement power in the future, the IMF, will refuse to create environmental regulations for ideological reasons. The reluctance of the IMF to make environmental regualtions, and the inability of the UN to cooperate over the issue will result in eco-terrorism against these organizations. As a result, eco-terrorism will have an international component as well as a domestic component.  
            More on eco-terrorism against international organizations, I am having a hard time coming up for a justification outside of “this is a global issue and people want international organizations to solve international problems”. I may also expound on eco-terrorism occurring more frequently in developing countries. Professor Shirk- should I predict a level of violence? I don’t have much of a baseline to compare it to.      

Reemergence of Nationalist Terrorism
            Similar to the religious extremism, radical nationalists view globalization as a threat to their identity, due to cultural convergence caused by globalization. As mentioned previously, globalization diffuses consumer goods to state around the world. This alters the culture of states and converges their culture with other globalized states. While this is likely to have a positive impact on international cooperation and communication, it will also result in the loss or the loss of significance in cultural aspects that are unique to certain states. This will not occur without resistance, but the more important aspect of cultural convergence that radical nationalist will take issue with is the fluidity by which people will be able to cross borders. Improved international cooperation and economic interests through the world will reduce xenophobia at a state level, leading to increases in both immigration and temporary residency. Illegal immigration will also increase, but deportation of undocumented people will not increase proportionally. Deportation of undocumented people will become unpopular in mainstream politics by the year 2050 and many immigration laws will change to become more favorable to legal and illegal immigrants. This will be due to the frequent, everyday interaction people will have with one another, communicating and traveling international with much greater ease than they do today. Relationships with people from multiple countries will become the norm in the future. Overall, people will put less importance on their national identity.
            The radical nationalism of the future will look a lot like the far right political parties of Europe today. Most of these groups base their ideology on anti-Muslim sentiment in Europe and tie immigration to security threats (Green 345). While consisting of only 6% of the EU parliament membership, political parties with anti-immigration platforms still exist in the mainstream of many European country’s politics. By 2050, mainstream immigration politics will have shifted far enough to the left so that opposing immigration will be considered a form of racism.  
            The combination of the loss of national identity and the increasingly favorable views toward immigration will force hardline nationalists out of meaningful politics altogether. In response to their lack of representation in the mainstream, some far-right political group members will splinter off and form nationalist terrorist cells. Similar to religious extremism, isolation and their lack of power to reverse to tide of globalization peacefully will radicalize these groups further.
            More on whom or what nationalist terrorists will target


Technology and Future Conflict 

By the year 2050, globalization will have lead to significant advancements in information sharing and surveillance technology, and it will change our everyday lives. Internet companies today collect and sell people Internet data to the government and other tech companies. In the future, other business will invest in this information in an attempt to cater their business to individuals and not a general populace. Likewise, state governments will buy data from domestic companies, foreign companies and other governments in order to create profiles of possible security threats. These profiles will be exponentially more detailed than they are today and they will exist before individuals even become threatening. Simply put, governments will have profiles of everyone on earth regardless of whether they are a threat or not. In the year 2050, the public will have knowledge of these surveillance programs, though disagreement between whether or not these programs should exist will still be split. Nonetheless, these programs will be more transparent and infinitely more complex than they are today. While this may seem scary to those who value privacy, this will have a substantial impact on counter terrorism.
Future surveillance technology will make it very difficult for identified terrorists to travel, as security cameras, skin (not just finger tip) imprinting and facial recognition will have improved to the point that a face or and skin pattern can be recognized by software instantaneously. Within seconds of being recognized by software, a terrorist’s location will be known to ever data collecting government in the world. Over the next 35 years, surveillance technology will increasingly threaten terrorist’s ability to congregate and meet face to face. While it is possible the terrorists could adapt to improved surveillance with some sort of technology of their own (maybe a substance that distorts their face and/ or skin), it is likely that technology will improve to mitigate any counter-surveillance strategy relatively quickly. Given that terrorist will not be able to circumvent surveillance technology, terrorists will have to remain out of the public eye at all times.
More on the collection of Internet data Internet and the shift of terrorism from groups to terror cells and lone wolf terrorism as the adaptation of terrorism to improved surveillance.


References

Babst, Dean. Elective Governments-- A Force For Peace. Rep. N.p.: Wisconsin State Department of Public Welfare, 1961. Print.
Eliperin, Juliet. "As Eco-terrorism Wanes, Governments Still Target Activist Groups Seen as Threat." Washington Post. The Washington Post, 10 Mar. 2012. Web. 03 May 2015. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/as-eco-terrorism-wanes-governments-still-target-activist-groups-seen-as-threat/2012/02/28/gIQAA4Ay3R_story.html>.
Green, Todd H. "Who Speaks for Europe's Muslims?: The Radical Right Obstacle to Dialogue." Cross Currents 62.3 (2012): 337-49. Web. 3 May 2015.
Griffel, Frank. "Globalization and the Middle East: Part Two." Globalization And The Middle East: Part Two. MacMillan Center, 21 Jan. 2003. Web. 01 May 2015. <http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/globalization-and-middle-east-part-two>.
Institute for Economic and Peace. Global Terrorism Index 2014 2 (2014): 12-82. 2014. Web. <http://www.visionofhumanity.org/sites/default/files/Global%20Terrorism%20Index%20Report%202014_0.pdf>.
Rubin, Barry. "Globalization and the Middle East: Part One." Globalization And The Middle East: Part One. MacMillan Center, 16 Jan. 2003. Web. 01 May 2015. <http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/globalization-and-middle-east-part-one>.

Sivan Hirsch-Hoefler & Cas Mudde (2014) “Ecoterrorism”: Terrorist Threat or Political Ploy?, Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 37:7, 586-603,


   

Friday, May 1, 2015

Snow Crash: Forecast or Fiction?

  In reading a science fiction novel, it is easy to get caught up in the flash and cutting-edge projections of the future without questioning the legitimacy of the author's theories about the future. In Neal Stephenson's Snow Crash, the primary characteristic of his future world which I found difficult to entertain was the privatization of every former government-run body. Though global corporations are on the rise today, and intensifying with the process of globalization, the ability of these multinational corporations to operate social programs and infrastructural regimes seems unlikely given the prevalence of the welfare state today. While I understand that Neal's extension of corporate domination to highways, prisons, security, even courts, is likely a reflection of his concerns over the rise of capitalism and power players in the global economy, I would argue that this projection of the future is implausible. Were these aspects of society to be run by private corporation, they would be riddled with corruption and inaccessible to consumers who lacked the means to afford services that had previously been provided by a federal government. This system would not last long, and I think that Neal's predictions here are overstated and exaggerated beyond the point of feasibility. 
  However, not every forecast made by Stephenson in the novel is quite so far fetched. With an increasing dependence on technology as a mean of global connection, interaction, trade, etc. the idea of the Metaverse is not that far removed from the Internet we use today. The increasing intensification of virtual realities as means of global communication seems plausible to me. Another plot theme suggested by Stephenson in the novel relating to technology and global interactivity that seems to have a more realistic base is the idea of a mix of technological and biological weaponry (ie: the Snow Crash virus) as a potential form of terrorism. With the redefinition of forms of terrorism in recent history, who is to say that a culmination of tactics involving technology are not to be a part of the near future? There definitely seems to be some degree of merit to these theories proposed by Stephenson in his science-fiction bestseller. 

Thursday, April 30, 2015

Snow Crash: The Plausible and The Implausible

Plausible
  I'm going to assume that the Metaverse is not only plausible, but where the future of the internet is heading.  Developing a Metaverse and the subsequent software to run it would be an incredibly lucrative business. I could see a large technology based organization like Apple creating a monopoly on it.
  With that said, I think that the social affects of the Metaverse shown in Snow Crash are also very plausible. Many people in Snow Crash use the Metaverse to conduct business. Because there are still geographical barriers when doing business, many chose to meet virtually to make very real deals. If the technology is developed where an accurately physically and emotionally representative avatar could be sent in the place of actually having to make travel arrangements to meet, I don't see any reason why it would not become the chief mode of communication in the business world. It would possibly expand the networks of trust that Fukuyama spoke of in Economic Globalization and Culture because it would make it increasingly easier to  meet face-to-face, in a very new way, continuously and to form relationships regardless of geographic barriers.
  People would of course have to get over the Sims like feel of things but just like the participants of the Metaverse in Snow Crash, as technology improved, so did the legitimacy of the avatars. I can  see this hierarchy of avatars being formed based on how much money an individual is willing to spend. Clubs like "The Black Sun" would inevitably pop up in the virtual world as it does in the real world only letting in the select few that made the list or in this case, had the right programming software.

Implausible
I find the privatization of everything, especially the police, highly unlikely and very troubling. The purpose of the police, in theory, is to help stop and prevent crimes from taking place. If multiple police entities are competing for crimes to solve, who is to say that they would not become racketeers creating crime in order to give themselves jobs. I'm aware that a similar thing does exist with private security, but even they have to yield to the police.
I also don't believe that Burbclave like entities could gain enough power to become as autonomous as those seen in Snow Crash. Even the most well connected of gated communities is not completely self sufficient. They have to interact with the rest of the world and follow the laws of the general population. I also think that as brought up in class, it would be very difficult for de jure segregation in housing settlements to happen as Stephenson envisioned with the Apartheid Burbclaves that had a sign stating " WHITE PEOPLE ONLY. NON-CAUCASIANS MUST BE PROCESSED" (Stephenson 32). Of course, this pretty much does happen today but it is more of a hushed process.

Snow Crash

After reading Snow Crash I feel that the largest implausibility in my mind is that a corporation such as the one Hiro works for would ever be allowed to exist the way society is. As we know, Hiro worked for the Central Intelligence Corporation. Hiro's job would be to gain intelligence and then post submit it and if anyone purchased his information he would get a percentage of the money. This would never be allowed by government's if the world remains structured the way it is. It has been seen over the last few years that when data is leaked, nations have to scramble in order to make sure that the damage is minimized and the nation's public image does not take a massive hit from other countries or even its own citizens. Information on any topic about a nation has become some of the most heavy guarded things that a nation can have and I'm sure there is no chance that this can be turned into a legitimized business model if nations remain the way they are today.

While the CIC is the most implausible part of Snow Crash for me, I feel that the most plausible thing from the book is the level of interconnectivity amongst people on the "metaverse". While I do not think it will necessarily be as expansive or as popular as is depicted in the book I sure that there will be some game or online community that will link people all over the world since there are already some forms of that today. People from all over the world play each other in Call of Duty and Halo and other popular video games all the time and I can easily see these becoming more widespread. In addition to more individualized connectivity I believe that states can connect in this way as well through competition. Over the last few years, more global tournaments for video games have appeared and they continue to grow in popularity. In the future I can see these events becoming nation vs. nation, sort of like the Olympics. This would allow more opportunity for nations to interact and cooperate and I do not think that this is far off at all.

Friday, April 24, 2015

Horizons

Out of all things that seemed implausible in the book, what I found to be the most bothersome to me was Ahni having complete mental and physical control over herself and being able to read into what people are going to do before they have even thought of it. Scientists have been attempting to find ways for humans to tap into the other portions of our brains for decades and it still hasn't happened, nor are we any closer to being able to do that than we were before. On the other side, at least we have been making serious advances into science exploration that may allow us to eventually settle in space. Although, an upside New York on a space platform is definitely not plausible at all either. Benjamin Radford of Live Science reiterates my sentiment in stating "There's no higher gear, no untapped potential that you don't already have access to. It's a myth. The fact is that people use all of their brains. Brain-imaging research clearly shows that the entire brain is engaged." So the whole idea that we may be bioengineered  to unlock some sort of secret potential within ourselves is farfetched. 

I found the World Council to be extremely plausible in the future. We have already seen countries coming together to form unions for a common cause and these same unions may grow in strength as globalization expands. As technology develops and allows countries to interact with each other more on a social and economical level, they are going to need a separate entity to settle disputes and enforce rulings in order for the world to continue functioning properly. We have already seen attempts at creating similar councils such as the United Nations. The way I viewed it was that the World council was as a final successful form that has evolved and gained power after many failed attempts at creating a council that could actually make a difference and hold power over many different countries. 

http://www.livescience.com/13279-limitless-movie-brain-potential-myth.html

Horizons Review


I believe it is very plausible for a group like the one in Horizons, to arise as extreme protectors of the Earth that could result in violent measures. For the future I think that the increase in eco-terrorism is definitely going to be an issue.  Considering the concern with the Earth and global warming is becoming an increasing topic all over the world. Environmental Degradation will need to be addressed. It is already having its affects and has already called for international cooperation. November 2015, the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference will be held to talk about global concerns. Also, the Earth Liberation Front (ELF),Greenpeace, and the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society have already been accused of eco-terrorists acts. Additionally, since past movements of development and industrialization are definitely taking their toll on the environment and will continue to be exacerbated, radical environmentalist movements are not a question of if, but when will they expand and how large will they be.

Additionally, an implausible aspect of the future is the decrease in communication. I do not believe communication will decrease, I believe it will continue to grow. The advancements of technology will make it harder to monitor and aspects of social media are the rise. Especially in democratic countries, forms of free thinking and communication will not decrease so easily. Interconnectedness and communication are important parts of society and culture. Therefore the idea that communication will be harder is a very implausible thought.

Thursday, April 23, 2015

Horizons: Plausible or not?

The most implausible thing about Horizons is the platforms that hover above the Earth. If its anything like the structure on the cover of the book it is inconceivable that that could be built by humans or anything like that would be built by humans. The cost of a single structure like that would cost more than the combined GDP of every country in the world. To put it in perspective, the International Space Station cost 150 billion dollars to build. It can handle about 12 crew members at maximum capacity. If every dollar of the world's (approximate) 87.25 trillion dollars was spent on building multiple ISS, it could make 582 space stations, which would store 6984 people maximum. This does not even come close to the amount of people who lived on the platforms in the book. Even if space engineering becomes cheaper, wouldn't the money be spent of the colonization of other planets? That could actually be profitable if humans were able to mine for resources on another planet, making the huge expense of space travel worth it. Building a platform in space does not have the same advantages and outside of tourism, its difficult to imagine how the project becomes profitable.

One aspect of the book I found realistic was the existence of a world counsel with significant enforcement power. I think globalization will lead to increased interconnectedness among states economically, and as technology improves international trade will become much easier. There will be a demand for a body that can hold both states and corporations responsible when they do not follow international protocols or if they break agreements with other states. A body resembling the world counsel will fill this need, and over time it will become more powerful as more and more states become reliant on it to solve their disputes. I do not foresee this body becoming as powerful as the world counsel as it is described in the book (able to execute genetically modified people); however, it is likely this supranational body would have enough power to seize assets or even use military force when necessary.

Friday, April 10, 2015

Eyes on the Future, Head in the Present

http://www cnn.com/2015/01/22/world/gallery/future-unknown-getty-creative/

   In this aesthetic representation of what members of popular culture imagine the future to be like, there is a strong undercurrent of that which society values today. Though we are removed from the Jetsons-like future detailed in William Gibson's fictitious account of the future, there is a desire for streamlined, monochromatic humanity with a drastic emphasis on environmental consciousness. As artistic mediums provide us the opportunity to analyze current concerns, the creation of this idealist future that seemingly avoided environmental plagues and humanitarian disasters reflects the current desire of society to stamp out these ills. The globalization of concern over environmental degradation and sustainability could get us to this future, but there is never any guarantee in our predictions about what tomorrow will hold. The series of images collected by analysts for CNN also suggest a strong dependence and development of current technological standards. Considering the capital and resources that the world has invested in the technology industry in past decades, this massive expansion of technological prowess seems a well-founded prediction for the future. The final image of the series is one which evokes a sensation of overwhelming surveillance; does this highlight our current concerns over the sovereignty of the individual, the right to privacy on a global scale? The degree to which these concerns will play out in the decades to come can only be determined with time, but the globalization of ideas and ideologies surrounding the future of environmental, social, political, and security standards has the potential to expedite the rate at which these positive changes suggested by the images in the gallery can occur.

Friendships and Cultural Homogeneity


This article is written by a Buzzfeed staff member named Matt Stopera who tells a story about an international friendship formed over his lost phone. He breaks it up into three chapters. Chapter one talks about how he lost his phone. Someone stole his phone at a bar and he had accepts the fact that his phone is most likely lost forever. Later that year, pictures start popping up on his photo stream. The pictures were of a man by an orange tree (later to be known as Brother Orange). Matt figures out that his phone was stolen and sold in China so he deletes the old iPhone believing that it will end there. In Chapter two of the story, Matt talks about how he posted his story on Buzzfeed. Twitter nation then takes it upon themselves to find this man. Once they did, Matt and Brother Orange began contacting through social media every day. They soon decided to meet in person. Chapter three talks about Matts arrival to Brother Oranges hometown of Meizhou. He then realizes how truly famous him and Brother Orange have become in China. They are treated like royalty. There are press conferences, endorsements, travel ambassador appointments, visits to temples and in general, a large amount of publicity focused on emphasizing the supposedly wonderful relationship between China and the United States. It ends with Matt telling the readers that a documentary has been made about his amazing experience.
I chose this article because it reminded me of the lecture we had on cultural homogenization.  In The Drawbacks of Cultural Globalization Reading Akande talks about how African culture has become culturally disoriented and its reaction are to
1)     exaggerated attachment to an often reinvented past in the name of tradition and culture; or 
2) attempts at wholesale adoption of anything and everything foreign (Akande).

This made me think of how incredibly eager the Chinese were to have Matt endorse their products and to come visit their businesses. I don’t believe that this story would have become as popular in China if it did not involve an affluent and influential western county like America.  At the same time, it brings into question whether this whole interest was really centered on economic and not cultural homogeneity like Fukuyama argues in Economic Globalization and Culture. This story helped put the relatively unknown town of Meizhou on the map and also helped Brother Orange himself with a tough economic situation. I believe that this article has aspects of cultural homogeneity and cultural heterogeneity. 

Wednesday, April 1, 2015

Globalization Under Attack, on the Soccer Field

Globalization Under Attack, on the Soccer Field

Binyamin Applebaum's article in the New York Times The Upshot section discusses how the English Premier League has continuously become more and more globalized. The article begins discussing how a 21 year old Englishman by the name of Harry Kane has taken the Premier League by storm this year leading his team in goals and having a great opening performance for the English National team. This would not be such a big deal if the percentage of English players occupying spots in the league. Out of the 500 players on first team squads in the Premier League, only 37% of the players compared to the Spanish league where Spanish players made up 61% and in Germany where Germans made up 59%.This is a massive drop compared to 20 years ago when the Premier League was made up of 69% Englishmen. This has caused Greg Dyke, the chairman of England's soccer governing organization to ask the government to place restrictions on foreigners getting work visas to play in the Premier League. Even though non-English players have allowed the Premier League to become the world's largest league in the largest sport the globalization may have potentially harmed the countries individual success on the field.

I find it interesting that something as sports can have an impact on how a country begins to make immigration policies. While Parliament and no political figures in England have stepped up and agreed with Mr. Dyke's request if there is any sport that would make it happen it would be soccer. Soccer is the largest sport in the world with no close second. Every year, soccer generate millions and millions of dollars of revenue for countries through tourism and the jobs it creates and if a country feels that it needs to make a move to stop globalization to continue to profit I can definitely see it happening. If a country is willing to slow down immigration for soccer then it can expand the idea because of job loss in other industries. While I don't necessarily agree with the idea of a country closing its borders because of a sport the fear it can cause in other industries can cause a country to impede the process of globalization.

Friday, March 27, 2015

International Climate Change Strategies

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-mexico-unveils-national-strategy-ahead-of-paris-climate-talks-2015-3

Mexico declared a strategy to cap its greenhouse emissions by 2026. Mexico formally declared their strategy way ahead of the United Nations Key Climate Summit that will be held December 2015 in Paris. Their plan is to reduce their green house emissions by 2026, with a 22 percent reduction of their usual levels by 2030. After Mexico announced their new strategy to combat climate change the United States President Barrack Obama announced a new joint climate change policy task force with Mexico. The United States is praising Mexico for setting an example. Mexican Foreign Minister José Antonio Meade hopes that the future summit will help reach the United Nations goal to prevent a 2 degree celsius rise in temperatures. The United Nations also hopes this will motivate other nations to submit strategy plans to help combat against climate change.

Although states have been part of the problem in the causes of environmental degradations, they need to be part of the solution to combat the effects on the globalized world and with creating a new set of global environmental norms. The United Nations Key Climate Summit in December and the joint policy between Mexico and the United States shows the emergence of a possible new transnational identity. The multitude of environmental problems blend and challenge rules on what is domestic and international through the convergence of international policies around the world. Is the continuance of globalization actually a bad thing with the newfound cooperation to combat climate change? Is globalization necessary to advance processes in the future for global sustainability as a whole?

Thursday, March 26, 2015

Chinese, Go home!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hazel-guardado/nicaraguas-proposed-inter_b_6083274.html



On the forefront on Latin America's environmental issues is the new construction of the Nicaragua canal that will link the Caribbean Sea with the Pacific ocean. Wang Jing lawyer is paving the way for  Hong Kong Based Nicaragua Canal Development Investment Co LTD (HKND) to build this canal. Pro arguments include helping to lift the country out of poverty by creating over 50,000 jobs during the construction and 200,000 more once the construction is complete. Additionally, they are predicting the canal to cause economic growth within the country of up to 14% per year. 

As we already know, globalization has been linked to environmental dilemmas including global warming. Similarly, the Nicaraguan people are not content with a Chinese investor stepping into their country and harming their environment. Additionally, "the project was granted to the HKND without any current environmental impact assessment (EIA) studies. Furthermore, rather than conducting these studies itself, the government will rely on the HKND to do so. "  The new canal project is set to displace multiple indigenous people, harm the wetlands, remove forests and destroy natural habitats.  The indigenous people have been left with no resort but to bring their case forth to the Inter-American court, claiming violations of international labour standards.  Overall, it brings us back to the same question. Do the benefits outweigh the means and is globalization truly a good thing?

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

International cooperation: Can it really solve climate change?

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/11/11/us-china-joint-announcement-climate-change

In November, the White House announced that the leaders of the United States and China were working together to create a protocol to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 25% by 2025. More importantly, the potential agreement would carry enforceable legal ramifications if one party were to break the protocol. An enforcement mechanism has long been the sticking point of the Chinese government (and to a degree the United States) that has stalled meaningful change in global environmental policy. Enforcement was generally considered the reason the Kyoto protocol failed. 

While many blame globalization and capitalism for global warming, international research has put environmental issues in the forefront of international politics. As part of the US-China agreement the two states have started the U.S.-China Clean Energy Research Center and U.S.-China Climate Change Working Group to research way in which industries can reduce emission. While these organizations maybe more political than scientific, international research into climate change is the reason these organizations exist. The proliferation of information across the globe has not only discovered the pitfalls of climate change, but technological innovations from inventors all over the world have led to an increase of technologies that reduce emissions. Part of the press release issued by the White House is the commitment to increase information of technologies between the US and China in an effort to reduce greenhouse gasses. Only time will tell if these new commitments by the US and China are real or just more political posturing.  

Friday, March 13, 2015

The E.U. Experiment Has Failed

The E.U. Experiment Has Failed

This article by Bruce Thornton on the Hoover Institution website that discusses the issues with the EU and how it has failed. The article begins by listing different statistics such as that compare the United States to the EU as both groups recovered from the Great Recession of 2008. Overall based on the statistics it is clear that the EU has recovered much slower than the United States and links it to the different believes that each individual state in the EU has a different view on how to solve the issues that have arose.

While the recession has caused issues, Thornton brings up how the EU will only continue to slow growth. He cites that by 2030, 25% of Europeans will be age 65 or older which would not be such a large issue if the birth rate in Europe had been at each woman having 2.1 children after the 1970s. Europe's birth rate in 2014 was 1.6 while 2.1 is the standard that is needed to refresh the population. Because of this aging of the EU, younger people will be overused for the economies to be as productive as the United States or other countries. In addition to aging, the EU is also dealing with issues of more immigrants coming in that do not share similar beliefs to the countries that they are attempting to move into. This is causing more nationalism to arise in European countries which directly counters the larger state mentality that the EU has been attempting to create.

I feel that Thornton brings up a lot of interesting points however I wonder if the states that make up the EU are to intertwined at this point to separate. The time that I feel the split would have happened would be when the Southern European countries economies were having their major issues and Northern Europe was succeeding but the split clearly did not happen. It will be interesting to see what happens in the coming years and whether the EU will break apart or split in anyway.

Globalization of Terrorist Ideals

http://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/crime/2015/03/13/ex-dover-resident-pleads-guilty-terrorism-charges/70303054/

As we continue to study the changing norms which result from globalization, the ability of citizens of a state to identify with terrorist groups around the world seems to be evolving into a worrisome reality. While ISIS/ISIL work to establish a caliphate within the Middle East, individuals around the world have been pledging their allegiance to the radical group. This trend shows the capacity for individuals to utilize the tools of globalization such as the Internet and other digitized networks to support and show their affiliation towards ideological groups removed from the individual's own state or sphere of influence. However, as explored in the case of citizens of the United States who provided material resources and support to ISIS/ISIL, there are consequences to this affiliation. I would argue that this truly exhibits the subjective nature of "terrorism," as one person's freedom fighters and legitimate group is another's terrorism group. While United States citizens are held accountable for supporting groups identified as foreign terrorist organizations, the broad definition of what constitutes a terrorist action is called into question.

IS group accepts allegiance pledge made by Nigeria’s Boko Haram


This article talks about how the IS, the Islamic State, has accepted Nigeria's Boko Haram pledge to allegiance. This shows that IS's desire for a growing caliphite may be slowly becoming a reality. One of the spokesman for IS stated that "Our caliphate is resisting and it is advancing in the right direction. We are fighting the Crusaders and the rafidah (Shiites) and day by day the Islamic State is becoming strong".
I chose this article because it really ties in with the discussion we had on Transnational Organized crime and the state. Transnational criminal organizations such as IS are trying to expand and it calls into question whether the state really has the capacity to control these growing extremists groups. They are after all able to grow partly due to globalization. In my opinion, states need to take a page from these transnational criminal organizations book and continually band together to fight them off. 

Friday, March 6, 2015

"Attention is not powerless"

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Global-News/2014/1215/Why-I-llRideWithYou-worked-and-other-Muslim-hashtags-didn-t-video


In the article "Why #I'llRideWithYou worked, and other Muslim hashtags didn't", Husna Haq analyzes the variance of effectiveness of slacktivism in a global context. The 2014 attack of a Sydney cafe by a Muslim man caused a wave of fear of retaliation against the Muslim community. The hashtag #IllRideWithYou generated 40,000 tweets in two hours and 170,000 tweets worldwide after an Aussie woman offered to walk with a Muslim woman for protection. Such instances of slacktivism  can be seen to be effective as it not only causes awareness but also promotes a specific action.

However, how do we measure whether slacktivism is effect or not? Sociologist Zeynep Tufekci, assistant professor at the University of North Carolina states that "Attention is not powerless". Whether or not a specific outcome is attained, the awareness and knowledge spreads rapidly worldwide  and cannot be reversed. Such as the hashtag #BringBackOurGirls, which was used by 4 million people worldwide. While the girls have yet to be found, the  global awareness has been created which creates a common union, which then puts pressure on the State to take action. I'd have to agree with the authors in this instance, while multiple instances of slacktivism seem to ineffective, the proliferation of knowledge causes enough of a global impact to continue its use.

"Euro Drops Toward Parity with Dollar"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/euro-hits-12-low-parity-dollar-looms-123434508--finance.html

In this article on finance and the Euro, it describes how for the first time in 13 years the Euro is dropping and possible could be in parity with the U.S. dollar. As of last Friday the euro is at its lowest price since 2003, it was bought at $1.085. The affects of this make traveling to Europe less expensive and also have boosted tourism in Europe, especially Greece. Greek tour companies have already reported more interest from U.S. travelers. Companies who are based in Europe stand to benefit, while those in the US will see a decrease in profits from European buyers. The euro has decreased in value between the dollar because difference of performances. The European Union has diluted the euro by its stimulus program and the U.S. has decided to end theirs. When the dollar will reach the same ratio depends on market fluctuations.

The European Central Bank implemented policies to help reinstall a money making stimulus while the Federal Reserve reacts by rising interest rates. The global economy is so interconnected that each country feels an effect good or bad. The interdependence of each actor whether they are states, corporations, or consumers are all affected by outcomes of the globalized economy and world. Political polices are ensued to equalize the certain events by different countries. Additionally, is it possible that the Euro shows that globalization is flattening the market and equalizing it for powerful countries by showing a parity between the dollar?