The most implausible thing about Horizons is the platforms that hover above the Earth. If its anything like the structure on the cover of the book it is inconceivable that that could be built by humans or anything like that would be built by humans. The cost of a single structure like that would cost more than the combined GDP of every country in the world. To put it in perspective, the International Space Station cost 150 billion dollars to build. It can handle about 12 crew members at maximum capacity. If every dollar of the world's (approximate) 87.25 trillion dollars was spent on building multiple ISS, it could make 582 space stations, which would store 6984 people maximum. This does not even come close to the amount of people who lived on the platforms in the book. Even if space engineering becomes cheaper, wouldn't the money be spent of the colonization of other planets? That could actually be profitable if humans were able to mine for resources on another planet, making the huge expense of space travel worth it. Building a platform in space does not have the same advantages and outside of tourism, its difficult to imagine how the project becomes profitable.
One aspect of the book I found realistic was the existence of a world counsel with significant enforcement power. I think globalization will lead to increased interconnectedness among states economically, and as technology improves international trade will become much easier. There will be a demand for a body that can hold both states and corporations responsible when they do not follow international protocols or if they break agreements with other states. A body resembling the world counsel will fill this need, and over time it will become more powerful as more and more states become reliant on it to solve their disputes. I do not foresee this body becoming as powerful as the world counsel as it is described in the book (able to execute genetically modified people); however, it is likely this supranational body would have enough power to seize assets or even use military force when necessary.
In terms of platforms being highly implausible due to the cost, I would ask if you are assuming this process would happen very quickly. It could take a century to do so which could really allow for much capital to be available. Lets say we only built 261 stations using half of the worlds GDP, that would house about 3,000 people, which is a significant amount especially with the possibility of expansion. I do believe we have the technology and if the desire became strong enough, the world would find a way. In regards to what would be the incentive outside of tourism, in Horizons, the incentive was at first business, and then once people settled, it evolved to a culture.
ReplyDeleteIn regards to the realistic ideas of the World Council, I agree except for the idea that they will not grow strong enough to execute genetically modified people. If the world ever had to endure massive destruction, perhaps they would be willing to give power to a World Council to do anything as long as it kept the peace, at least in the short run.
But if we "only" used half of the ENTIRE WORLD's GDP, over the span of 100 years, and then it would have catastrophic consequences back on earth like the loss of investment in agriculture and job creation which would cause horrible unemployment and probably famine. The numbers, as we can conceive them today, just don't add up. An unforeseeable improvement in human capabilities would have to occur, and that's not an assumption anyone can reasonably make at this point.
DeleteNoah I have to agree with the plausibility of a world counsel eventually having enforcement power. As the years have gone on the world has seen alliances such as NATO grown in strength and cohesiveness and I can easily see this expanding to larger and larger groups of nations as globalization continues to expand to interconnect the world. I do however want to remain optimistic and hope that platforms like the ones described in the book will be possible because I picture Star Wars like planets and that would be awesome to have on Earth.
ReplyDeleteNoah, I think that you address realistic reasons as to why the world counsel could develop but I remain skeptical of the ability of a regime to have that much power in a system has traditionally been one of anarchy. Unless the interconnectedness of states evolves to a point at which they can no longer function without the support/incentives provided by another state, what is to hold states accountable to acting under the demands of the world counsel? If a power player similar to the United States of America or China pulled out of the world counsel, how would they maintain their legitimacy?
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